Security Technology Executive

NOV-DEC 2017

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40 SECURIT Y TECHNOLOGY E XECUTIVE • November/December 2017 • www. RISK MITIGATION nticipating security risks before they threaten your organization is increas- ingly a must have asset for today 's businesses, impacting everyone from the front lines of your opera- tion to the board room. Know what's on the way is about more than just throwing darts at a board, though. By lever - aging broad, geopolitical intelligence on emerging trends and examining it through a security orient- ed lens, we can accurately forecast evolving threats before they hit an organization's bottom line. That provides the opportunity to focus security resources on what's truly important, implementing protective measures and keeping your people left of the boom. Here are five threat trends that my analyst team believes are important for security professionals to monitor and prepare for in the year ahead 1 The Evolving Jihadist Threat Jihadist groups have encouraged grass- roots jihadists living in the West to conduct simple attacks for many years now. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula began promoting the idea in 2009, and following attacks in Little Rock, Arkansas and Ft. Hood, Texas that year, launched the English- language magazine Inspire to recruit attackers and provide guidance on how to conduct such attacks. The simple pipe and pressure cooker bomb instructions contained in Inspire Magazine's first edition have been used in several attacks and plots to include the Boston Marathon bombing . The vehicular assault instructions contained in the sec- ond edition have also been used in many attacks. The Islamic State also began promoting the concept in Sept. 2014. These simple attacks have become a nightmare for corporate security directors trying to protect travelers and facilities globally and most acutely in Europe. With the losses the Islamic State core is experienc- ing on the battlefield and the Islamic State/al Qaeda competition for primacy in the jihadist movement, we expect to see a continuation of this threat. A 5 Threat Trends for the Coming Year 2 Surging left and Right Wing Violence in the U.S. and Europe While certainly not a new phenomenon, political polarization has grown in recent years in the United States and Europe. While neither region has ever been truly free of political violence, the violence tends to run in cycles. We are moving into another very active cycle for both the extreme left and extreme right – and indeed the extremes are feeding off each other. This phase has been sparked partially by national- ism, immigration and anti-globalization, but a host of other social issues have contributed to the friction. We anticipate an increase in ultra-nationalist and neo-Nazi recruiting and plotting, along with inten- sification in anarchist and other left-wing extremist activity and protests. This will result in street con- frontations between the two camps that will result in crimes such as assault, murder increasingly violent protests and bombings. In addition to extremists targeting each other, right-wing violence will impact immigrants or perceived immigrants and the gov- ernment. Anarchists will also target governments and corporate targets they perceive to be involved in globalization. 3 An Increasing Threat from Drones While the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) in lethal attacks by non-state actors such as the Islamic State and Hezbollah has garnered a great deal of attention, we continue to believe that it will be some time before terrorist actors in the West will be able to create improvised weaponized drones capable of carrying out mass-casualty attacks in the West. However, that doesn't mean they won't try and we expect to see plots or botched attacks in the coming year involving drones. Such an incident will likely cause far more panic than casualties. Perhaps a more acute threat involving drones at the present time is their use as surveillance platforms by those planning attacks or direct action events against facilities or even business executives. We are unaware From terrorism to cyber intrusions, potential threats are many By Scott Stewar t

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